--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/jkaplow/Box Sync/Classes/Research/Uncertainty/Determinants/Submit/
> ISQ/Final/DetUnc_Replication.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  24 Nov 2020, 15:40:03

. do "/var/folders/v7/s3qknrvj4rb1ss_b57vsdmzw0000gp/T//SD20958.000000"

. * Replication file for "The Determinants of Uncertainty in International Relations."
>  International Studies Quarterly.
. * Jeffrey M. Kaplow, William & Mary, jkaplow@wm.edu
. * Erik Gartzke, University of California San Diego, egartzke@ucsd.edu
. 
. ****
. * Model 1, Retrospective Uncertainty, all estimates
. *
. use "/Users/jkaplow/Box Sync/Classes/Research/Uncertainty/Determinants/retrodat.dta"
> , clear

. xtset ccode year
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1968 to 2005, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      3,597
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        165

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.6006                                         min =          1
     between = 0.9071                                         avg =       21.8
     overall = 0.6403                                         max =         27

                                                Wald chi2(16)     =   19052.30
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 165 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |   .7532366    .024343    30.94   0.000     .7055253    .8009479
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .6788506    .038456    17.65   0.000     .6034782     .754223
   first_pers_bw |   .0297869   .0390042     0.76   0.445      -.04666    .1062337
    first_pers_w |  -.3379886   .1188113    -2.84   0.004    -.5708546   -.1051227
       rgdppc_bw |  -.0063902   .0094845    -0.67   0.500    -.0249795    .0121991
        rgdppc_w |  -.0130981   .0027594    -4.75   0.000    -.0185065   -.0076898
      hasnuke_bw |   .0009519   .0042543     0.22   0.823    -.0073864    .0092902
       hasnuke_w |   .0047461   .0046069     1.03   0.303    -.0042834    .0137755
        tdriv_bw |  -.0034861   .0035139    -0.99   0.321    -.0103733    .0034011
         tdriv_w |  -.0092259    .011745    -0.79   0.432    -.0322458    .0137939
         ally_bw |  -.0070866   .0043915    -1.61   0.107    -.0156938    .0015207
          ally_w |   .0176724   .0117906     1.50   0.134    -.0054368    .0407815
 midslast5dum_bw |    -.00825   .0067086    -1.23   0.219    -.0213986    .0048987
  midslast5dum_w |   .0168923   .0124337     1.36   0.174    -.0074773     .041262
      polity2_bw |  -.0206344   .0291099    -0.71   0.478    -.0776888    .0364199
       polity2_w |   .0361408   .0503513     0.72   0.473     -.062546    .1348275
           _cons |   .0231691   .0063206     3.67   0.000      .010781    .0355572
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  .28721251
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Substantive effects
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag first_pers rgdppc hasnuke tdriv ally midslast5dum poli
> ty2, i(ccode) fe vce(cl ccode)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =      3,597
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        165

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.6006                                         min =          1
     between = 0.8869                                         avg =       21.8
     overall = 0.6378                                         max =         27

                                                F(8,164)          =      57.28
corr(u_i, Xb)  = 0.1327                         Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 165 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
    retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag |   .6788506   .0384131    17.67   0.000     .6030026    .7546986
   first_pers |  -.3379886   .1186788    -2.85   0.005     -.572324   -.1036532
       rgdppc |  -.0130981   .0027563    -4.75   0.000    -.0185406   -.0076557
      hasnuke |   .0047461   .0046018     1.03   0.304    -.0043403    .0138325
        tdriv |  -.0092259   .0117319    -0.79   0.433     -.032391    .0139392
         ally |   .0176724   .0117774     1.50   0.135    -.0055826    .0409274
 midslast5dum |   .0168923   .0124199     1.36   0.176    -.0076311    .0414158
      polity2 |   .0361408   .0502951     0.72   0.473    -.0631687    .1354503
        _cons |   .0091523     .01037     0.88   0.379    -.0113237    .0296283
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |  .05320641
      sigma_e |  .28721251
          rho |   .0331793   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers=(.00004(.047996).48)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      3,597
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =      .00004
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .048036
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .096032
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .144028
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .192024
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =      .24002
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .288016
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .336012
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .384008
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .432004
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =         .48
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0978614   .0021633    45.24   0.000     .0936215    .1021014
          2  |   .0816393   .0035328    23.11   0.000     .0747151    .0885636
          3  |   .0654172   .0092289     7.09   0.000     .0473288    .0835057
          4  |   .0491951   .0149251     3.30   0.001     .0199426    .0784477
          5  |    .032973   .0206212     1.60   0.110    -.0074437    .0733898
          6  |   .0167509   .0263173     0.64   0.524      -.03483    .0683318
          7  |   .0005288   .0320134     0.02   0.987    -.0622162    .0632739
          8  |  -.0156933   .0377095    -0.42   0.677    -.0896025     .058216
          9  |  -.0319154   .0434056    -0.74   0.462    -.1169888     .053158
         10  |  -.0481375   .0491017    -0.98   0.327    -.1443751    .0481001
         11  |  -.0643596   .0547978    -1.17   0.240    -.1717613    .0430422
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(rgdppc=(.022096(.6320185)6.322395)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      3,597
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =     .022096
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .6541145
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    1.286133
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    1.918152
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =     2.55017
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    3.182189
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    3.814207
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    4.446226
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    5.078244
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    5.710263
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =   -.0048262 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0925612   .0001811   511.13   0.000     .0922062    .0929161
          2  |   .0842829    .001561    53.99   0.000     .0812235    .0873423
          3  |   .0760047    .003303    23.01   0.000     .0695309    .0824784
          4  |   .0677264   .0050451    13.42   0.000     .0578383    .0776145
          5  |   .0594482   .0067871     8.76   0.000     .0461457    .0727506
          6  |   .0511699   .0085292     6.00   0.000      .034453    .0678868
          7  |   .0428916   .0102712     4.18   0.000     .0227604    .0630229
          8  |   .0346134   .0120133     2.88   0.004     .0110678     .058159
          9  |   .0263351   .0137553     1.91   0.056    -.0006248    .0532951
         10  |   .0180569   .0154974     1.17   0.244    -.0123174    .0484312
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(polity2=(-.10(.02).10)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      3,597
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =         -.1

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.08

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.06

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.04

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.02

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =           0

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =         .02

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =         .04

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =         .06

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =         .08

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1059084 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0182679 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0877965 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0519878 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4512093 (mean)
               ally            =    .6316375 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6455379 (mean)
               polity2         =          .1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .088261   .0047868    18.44   0.000      .078879    .0976429
          2  |   .0889838   .0037809    23.54   0.000     .0815734    .0963942
          3  |   .0897066    .002775    32.33   0.000     .0842677    .0951454
          4  |   .0904294   .0017691    51.12   0.000     .0869621    .0938967
          5  |   .0911522   .0007632   119.44   0.000     .0896564     .092648
          6  |    .091875   .0002427   378.50   0.000     .0913993    .0923508
          7  |   .0925979   .0012486    74.16   0.000     .0901506    .0950451
          8  |   .0933207   .0022545    41.39   0.000     .0889019    .0977395
          9  |   .0940435   .0032604    28.84   0.000     .0876531    .1004338
         10  |   .0947663   .0042663    22.21   0.000     .0864044    .1031282
         11  |   .0954891   .0052723    18.11   0.000     .0851557    .1058225
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Robustness checks
. * Including coder-assessed uncertainty
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w coder_frc_any_bw coder_frc_any_w, i(ccode) re vce(cl
> uster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      3,597
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        165

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.6006                                         min =          1
     between = 0.9075                                         avg =       21.8
     overall = 0.6403                                         max =         27

                                                Wald chi2(18)     =   18620.47
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 165 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |   .7541714   .0246504    30.59   0.000     .7058575    .8024852
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .6788445    .038476    17.64   0.000     .6034329     .754256
   first_pers_bw |   .0327463   .0394067     0.83   0.406    -.0444894     .109982
    first_pers_w |  -.3377481   .1187644    -2.84   0.004     -.570522   -.1049742
       rgdppc_bw |  -.0072435   .0103825    -0.70   0.485    -.0275928    .0131058
        rgdppc_w |  -.0131213   .0027548    -4.76   0.000    -.0185206   -.0077219
      hasnuke_bw |   .0016362   .0040833     0.40   0.689    -.0063669    .0096392
       hasnuke_w |   .0047433   .0046067     1.03   0.303    -.0042858    .0137723
        tdriv_bw |  -.0028603   .0034931    -0.82   0.413    -.0097066     .003986
         tdriv_w |  -.0092458   .0117643    -0.79   0.432    -.0323034    .0138119
         ally_bw |  -.0066677   .0042373    -1.57   0.116    -.0149727    .0016372
          ally_w |   .0176835   .0118099     1.50   0.134    -.0054633    .0408304
 midslast5dum_bw |  -.0084931   .0067031    -1.27   0.205    -.0216309    .0046447
  midslast5dum_w |   .0169326   .0125046     1.35   0.176    -.0075759     .041441
      polity2_bw |  -.0098777   .0330725    -0.30   0.765    -.0746986    .0549433
       polity2_w |   .0363912   .0504321     0.72   0.471     -.062454    .1352363
coder_frc_any_bw |     .06112    .041632     1.47   0.142    -.0204772    .1427173
 coder_frc_any_w |  -.0016469   .0130891    -0.13   0.900    -.0273012    .0240073
           _cons |   .0211201   .0061759     3.42   0.001     .0090155    .0332247
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  .28725435
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ****
. * Model 2, Retrospective Uncertainty, over-estimates
. *
. use "/Users/jkaplow/Box Sync/Classes/Research/Uncertainty/Determinants/overdat.dta",
>  clear

. xtset ccode year
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1968 to 2005, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        379
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        123

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2570                                         min =          1
     between = 0.3445                                         avg =        3.1
     overall = 0.4521                                         max =         12

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 123 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |    .496861   .1673334     2.97   0.003     .1688935    .8248285
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .3963251   .0765109     5.18   0.000     .2463665    .5462837
   first_pers_bw |  -.0526177   .1461672    -0.36   0.719    -.3391002    .2338648
    first_pers_w |  -.2307099   .4249674    -0.54   0.587    -1.063631    .6022108
       rgdppc_bw |  -.1868577   .1053494    -1.77   0.076    -.3933388    .0196234
        rgdppc_w |   -.122448   .1902034    -0.64   0.520    -.4952399    .2503438
      hasnuke_bw |  -.0200125   .0356403    -0.56   0.574    -.0898662    .0498412
       hasnuke_w |   .2102882    .031465     6.68   0.000      .148618    .2719584
        tdriv_bw |  -.0099949   .0283857    -0.35   0.725    -.0656299    .0456401
         tdriv_w |  -.0047101   .0233126    -0.20   0.840    -.0504021    .0409818
         ally_bw |  -.0752674   .0274883    -2.74   0.006    -.1291434   -.0213914
          ally_w |   .0533916   .0411204     1.30   0.194    -.0272029    .1339862
 midslast5dum_bw |  -.0718888    .036638    -1.96   0.050    -.1436981   -.0000796
  midslast5dum_w |   .0284933   .0247426     1.15   0.249    -.0200013     .076988
      polity2_bw |  -.0306734   .1527037    -0.20   0.841    -.3299672    .2686205
       polity2_w |  -.4142619   .2768966    -1.50   0.135    -.9569692    .1284453
           _cons |   .2424233   .0437255     5.54   0.000     .1567229    .3281237
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |  .10843618
         sigma_e |  .10997561
             rho |  .49295205   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Substantive effects
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag first_pers rgdppc hasnuke tdriv ally midslast5dum poli
> ty2, i(ccode) fe vce(cluster ccode)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        379
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        123

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2570                                         min =          1
     between = 0.0532                                         avg =        3.1
     overall = 0.1221                                         max =         12

                                                F(7,122)          =          .
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.1931                        Prob > F          =          .

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 123 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
    retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag |   .3963251   .0756792     5.24   0.000     .2465105    .5461397
   first_pers |  -.2307099    .420348    -0.55   0.584    -1.062831     .601411
       rgdppc |   -.122448   .1881359    -0.65   0.516    -.4948819    .2499858
      hasnuke |   .2102882    .031123     6.76   0.000     .1486772    .2718992
        tdriv |  -.0047101   .0230592    -0.20   0.838    -.0503582     .040938
         ally |   .0533916   .0406734     1.31   0.192    -.0271255    .1339088
 midslast5dum |   .0284933   .0244737     1.16   0.247    -.0199548    .0769414
      polity2 |  -.4142619   .2738867    -1.51   0.133    -.9564481    .1279242
        _cons |   .0721191   .0421551     1.71   0.090    -.0113311    .1555693
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |  .16322075
      sigma_e |  .10997561
          rho |  .68776475   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers=(.00004(.047996).48)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =        379
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =      .00004
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .048036
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .096032
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .144028
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .192024
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =      .24002
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .288016
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .336012
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .384008
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .432004
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =         .48
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1766202   .0166033    10.64   0.000     .1440783    .2091621
          2  |    .165547   .0035717    46.35   0.000     .1585466    .1725474
          3  |   .1544739   .0237467     6.51   0.000     .1079311    .2010166
          4  |   .1434007   .0439218     3.26   0.001     .0573157    .2294858
          5  |   .1323276   .0640968     2.06   0.039     .0067002     .257955
          6  |   .1212544   .0842718     1.44   0.150    -.0439153    .2864241
          7  |   .1101813   .1044468     1.05   0.291    -.0945308    .3148933
          8  |   .0991081   .1246219     0.80   0.426    -.1451463    .3433625
          9  |   .0880349   .1447969     0.61   0.543    -.1957617    .3718316
         10  |   .0769618   .1649719     0.47   0.641    -.2463772    .4003008
         11  |   .0658886   .1851469     0.36   0.722    -.2969927    .4287699
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(rgdppc=(.0022096(.6320185)6.322395)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =        379
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0022096
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .6342281
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    1.266247
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    1.898265
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    2.530284
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    3.162302
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    3.794321
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    4.426339
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    5.058358
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    5.690376
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    6.322395
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0100528 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1781796   .0163973    10.87   0.000     .1460414    .2103178
          2  |   .1007902    .102508     0.98   0.325    -.1001219    .3017022
          3  |   .0234007   .2214134     0.11   0.916    -.4105616    .4573631
          4  |  -.0539887   .3403188    -0.16   0.874    -.7210013    .6130239
          5  |  -.1313781   .4592242    -0.29   0.775    -1.031441    .7686848
          6  |  -.2087675   .5781296    -0.36   0.718    -1.341881    .9243456
          7  |  -.2861569    .697035    -0.41   0.681     -1.65232    1.080007
          8  |  -.3635463   .8159404    -0.45   0.656     -1.96276    1.235667
          9  |  -.4409358   .9348458    -0.47   0.637      -2.2732    1.391328
         10  |  -.5183252   1.053751    -0.49   0.623    -2.583639    1.546989
         11  |  -.5957145   1.172656    -0.51   0.611    -2.894079     1.70265
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(polity2=(-.10(.02).10)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =        379
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =         -.1

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.08

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.06

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.04

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.02

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =           0

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =         .02

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =         .04

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =         .06

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =         .08

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =    .1113247 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .039539 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0893665 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .1055409 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4221636 (mean)
               ally            =    .6807388 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .6649077 (mean)
               polity2         =          .1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .213098    .030142     7.07   0.000     .1540208    .2721753
          2  |   .2048128   .0246643     8.30   0.000     .1564718    .2531539
          3  |   .1965276   .0191865    10.24   0.000     .1589227    .2341325
          4  |   .1882423   .0137088    13.73   0.000     .1613736    .2151111
          5  |   .1799571   .0082311    21.86   0.000     .1638245    .1960897
          6  |   .1716719   .0027533    62.35   0.000     .1662754    .1770683
          7  |   .1633866   .0027244    59.97   0.000     .1580469    .1687264
          8  |   .1551014   .0082021    18.91   0.000     .1390255    .1711773
          9  |   .1468161   .0136799    10.73   0.000     .1200041    .1736282
         10  |   .1385309   .0191576     7.23   0.000     .1009827    .1760791
         11  |   .1302457   .0246354     5.29   0.000     .0819613    .1785301
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Robustness checks
. * Including coder-assessed uncertainty
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w coder_frc_any_bw coder_frc_any_w, i(ccode) re vce(cl
> uster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        379
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        123

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2629                                         min =          1
     between = 0.3561                                         avg =        3.1
     overall = 0.4573                                         max =         12

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 123 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |   .5089711   .1706737     2.98   0.003     .1744568    .8434855
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .3907337   .0753576     5.19   0.000     .2430355     .538432
   first_pers_bw |  -.0432648   .1436265    -0.30   0.763    -.3247677     .238238
    first_pers_w |  -.2341614   .4279855    -0.55   0.584    -1.072998    .6046747
       rgdppc_bw |  -.1912162   .1073925    -1.78   0.075    -.4017016    .0192692
        rgdppc_w |  -.1050082   .1918172    -0.55   0.584    -.4809629    .2709465
      hasnuke_bw |  -.0228639   .0345381    -0.66   0.508    -.0905573    .0448295
       hasnuke_w |   .2115642    .031702     6.67   0.000     .1494294    .2736991
        tdriv_bw |  -.0035285   .0282558    -0.12   0.901    -.0589088    .0518518
         tdriv_w |  -.0035537   .0228377    -0.16   0.876    -.0483147    .0412074
         ally_bw |  -.0697231   .0291364    -2.39   0.017    -.1268294   -.0126169
          ally_w |   .0547758   .0406985     1.35   0.178    -.0249919    .1345434
 midslast5dum_bw |  -.0696931   .0369845    -1.88   0.060    -.1421813    .0027952
  midslast5dum_w |   .0367465   .0297957     1.23   0.217    -.0216519    .0951449
      polity2_bw |   -.001742   .1514804    -0.01   0.991    -.2986381     .295154
       polity2_w |  -.4251518   .2783742    -1.53   0.127    -.9707552    .1204516
coder_frc_any_bw |   .0853249   .0727943     1.17   0.241    -.0573492     .227999
 coder_frc_any_w |  -.0589609   .0485904    -1.21   0.225    -.1541964    .0362745
           _cons |   .2294683   .0466586     4.92   0.000     .1380191    .3209175
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |  .10780513
         sigma_e |  .10976159
             rho |  .49100826   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Including NATO membership 
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w NATO_bw NATO_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        379
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        123

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2576                                         min =          1
     between = 0.3464                                         avg =        3.1
     overall = 0.4551                                         max =         12

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 123 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |   .4929258   .1662279     2.97   0.003      .167125    .8187265
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .3960064    .077192     5.13   0.000     .2447127       .5473
   first_pers_bw |  -.0493987   .1468211    -0.34   0.737    -.3371628    .2383653
    first_pers_w |  -.2289226   .4223991    -0.54   0.588     -1.05681    .5989645
       rgdppc_bw |   -.162407   .1102916    -1.47   0.141    -.3785745    .0537605
        rgdppc_w |  -.1141379   .1899377    -0.60   0.548    -.4864089    .2581332
      hasnuke_bw |  -.0159518   .0391495    -0.41   0.684    -.0926833    .0607798
       hasnuke_w |   .2087661   .0324647     6.43   0.000     .1451363    .2723958
        tdriv_bw |  -.0114851   .0291693    -0.39   0.694    -.0686558    .0456857
         tdriv_w |  -.0045312   .0235049    -0.19   0.847    -.0505999    .0415376
         ally_bw |  -.0704269    .029798    -2.36   0.018      -.12883   -.0120239
          ally_w |   .0521033   .0421282     1.24   0.216    -.0304664     .134673
 midslast5dum_bw |  -.0695903   .0370029    -1.88   0.060    -.1421146     .002934
  midslast5dum_w |   .0292648   .0247997     1.18   0.238    -.0193418    .0778714
      polity2_bw |   .0166455   .1826486     0.09   0.927     -.341339    .3746301
       polity2_w |  -.3990896   .2879825    -1.39   0.166    -.9635249    .1653458
         NATO_bw |  -.0296983   .0383823    -0.77   0.439    -.1049263    .0455296
          NATO_w |  -.0314284   .0539495    -0.58   0.560    -.1371675    .0743106
           _cons |   .2399961   .0442187     5.43   0.000      .153329    .3266632
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |  .10881926
         sigma_e |  .11015436
             rho |  .49390314   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ****
. * Model 3, Retrospective Uncertainty, under-estimates
. *
. use "/Users/jkaplow/Box Sync/Classes/Research/Uncertainty/Determinants/underdat.dta"
> , clear

. xtset ccode year
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1968 to 2005, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        560
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        141

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.4691                                         min =          1
     between = 0.9655                                         avg =        4.0
     overall = 0.8889                                         max =         13

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 141 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |   .9469919   .0148393    63.82   0.000     .9179073    .9760765
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .6101761   .1417446     4.30   0.000     .3323618    .8879904
   first_pers_bw |  -.2495126   .2682492    -0.93   0.352    -.7752714    .2762462
    first_pers_w |  -2.331472   .6093179    -3.83   0.000    -3.525713   -1.137231
       rgdppc_bw |  -.0471976   .0470683    -1.00   0.316    -.1394497    .0450545
        rgdppc_w |  -.0024248   .0042176    -0.57   0.565    -.0106912    .0058415
      hasnuke_bw |   -.011674   .0297257    -0.39   0.695    -.0699352    .0465873
       hasnuke_w |  -.0558558   .0259197    -2.15   0.031    -.1066574   -.0050543
        tdriv_bw |  -.0667944   .0369991    -1.81   0.071    -.1393113    .0057225
         tdriv_w |   .1488046   .0732243     2.03   0.042     .0052877    .2923215
         ally_bw |  -.0650302   .0362693    -1.79   0.073    -.1361168    .0060564
          ally_w |  -.0637666   .1282886    -0.50   0.619    -.3152076    .1876744
 midslast5dum_bw |   .0357186   .0421569     0.85   0.397    -.0469074    .1183446
  midslast5dum_w |   .0722212    .045351     1.59   0.111    -.0166651    .1611075
      polity2_bw |  -.1353105   .1874461    -0.72   0.470     -.502698     .232077
       polity2_w |   -1.35015    .451052    -2.99   0.003    -2.234195   -.4661039
           _cons |    .146785   .0430831     3.41   0.001     .0623436    .2312264
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  .37148381
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Substantive effects
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag first_pers rgdppc hasnuke tdriv ally midslast5dum poli
> ty2, i(ccode) fe vce(cluster ccode)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        560
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        141

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.4691                                         min =          1
     between = 0.9195                                         avg =        4.0
     overall = 0.8293                                         max =         13

                                                F(7,140)          =          .
corr(u_i, Xb)  = 0.6293                         Prob > F          =          .

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 141 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
    retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag |   .6101761   .1407118     4.34   0.000     .3319813    .8883709
   first_pers |  -2.331472   .6048783    -3.85   0.000    -3.527349   -1.135595
       rgdppc |  -.0024248   .0041869    -0.58   0.563    -.0107026    .0058529
      hasnuke |  -.0558558   .0257308    -2.17   0.032     -.106727   -.0049847
        tdriv |   .1488046   .0726907     2.05   0.043     .0050911    .2925181
         ally |  -.0637666   .1273539    -0.50   0.617     -.315552    .1880189
 midslast5dum |   .0722212   .0450205     1.60   0.111    -.0167868    .1612292
      polity2 |   -1.35015   .4477656    -3.02   0.003    -2.235406    -.464893
        _cons |   .2097923   .1225302     1.71   0.089    -.0324564     .452041
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   .4601445
      sigma_e |  .37148381
          rho |  .60541285   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers=(.00004(.047996).48)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =        560
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =      .00004
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .048036
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .096032
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .144028
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .192024
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =      .24002
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .288016
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .336012
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .384008
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =     .432004
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =         .48
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .5262657   .0131328    40.07   0.000     .5005259    .5520055
          2  |   .4143644    .015899    26.06   0.000      .383203    .4455258
          3  |   .3024631   .0449307     6.73   0.000     .2144005    .3905256
          4  |   .1905618   .0739624     2.58   0.010     .0455981    .3355255
          5  |   .0786604   .1029942     0.76   0.445    -.1232045    .2805253
          6  |  -.0332409   .1320259    -0.25   0.801    -.2920069    .2255252
          7  |  -.1451422   .1610577    -0.90   0.367    -.4608094     .170525
          8  |  -.2570435   .1900894    -1.35   0.176    -.6296119    .1155249
          9  |  -.3689448   .2191211    -1.68   0.092    -.7984143    .0605247
         10  |  -.4808462   .2481529    -1.94   0.053    -.9672169    .0055246
         11  |  -.5927474   .2771846    -2.14   0.032    -1.136019   -.0494756
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(rgdppc=(.0022096(.6320185)6.322395)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =        560
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0022096
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .6342281
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    1.266247
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    1.898265
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    2.530284
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    3.162302
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    3.794321
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    4.426339
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    5.058358
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    5.690376
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    6.322395
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =    .0040179 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .4758511    .000354  1344.07   0.000     .4751572     .476545
          2  |   .4743186   .0022922   206.93   0.000     .4698261    .4788111
          3  |   .4727861   .0049384    95.74   0.000     .4631071     .482465
          4  |   .4712535   .0075845    62.13   0.000     .4563881    .4861189
          5  |    .469721   .0102307    45.91   0.000     .4496691    .4897728
          6  |   .4681884   .0128769    36.36   0.000     .4429501    .4934267
          7  |   .4666559   .0155231    30.06   0.000     .4362311    .4970806
          8  |   .4651233   .0181693    25.60   0.000     .4295121    .5007345
          9  |   .4635908   .0208155    22.27   0.000     .4227931    .5043884
         10  |   .4620582   .0234617    19.69   0.000     .4160741    .5080423
         11  |   .4605257   .0261079    17.64   0.000     .4093551    .5116962
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(polity2=(-.10(.02).10)) atmeans

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =        560
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()

1._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =         -.1

2._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.08

3._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.06

4._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.04

5._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =        -.02

6._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =           0

7._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =         .02

8._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =         .04

9._at        : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =         .06

10._at       : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =         .08

11._at       : retro_frc_~g    =     .407015 (mean)
               first_pers      =    .0217514 (mean)
               rgdppc          =    .0867677 (mean)
               hasnuke         =    .0910714 (mean)
               tdriv           =    .4535714 (mean)
               ally            =    .6214286 (mean)
               midslast5dum    =    .7071429 (mean)
               polity2         =          .1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .6160858   .0465756    13.23   0.000     .5247992    .7073723
          2  |   .5890828   .0376203    15.66   0.000     .5153483    .6628172
          3  |   .5620798    .028665    19.61   0.000     .5058974    .6182621
          4  |   .5350768   .0197097    27.15   0.000     .4964465    .5737071
          5  |   .5080738   .0107544    47.24   0.000     .4869956     .529152
          6  |   .4810708   .0017991   267.40   0.000     .4775447    .4845969
          7  |   .4540678   .0071563    63.45   0.000     .4400418    .4680938
          8  |   .4270648   .0161116    26.51   0.000     .3954867    .4586429
          9  |   .4000618   .0250669    15.96   0.000     .3509317     .449192
         10  |   .3730589   .0340222    10.97   0.000     .3063766    .4397411
         11  |   .3460559   .0429775     8.05   0.000     .2618215    .4302902
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Robustness checks
. * Including coder-assessed uncertainty
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w coder_frc_any_bw coder_frc_any_w, i(ccode) re vce(cl
> uster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        560
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        141

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.4695                                         min =          1
     between = 0.9654                                         avg =        4.0
     overall = 0.8890                                         max =         13

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 141 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |   .9464014   .0145347    65.11   0.000      .917914    .9748888
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .6100801   .1422794     4.29   0.000     .3312175    .8889427
   first_pers_bw |  -.2262851   .2617027    -0.86   0.387    -.7392129    .2866427
    first_pers_w |  -2.309577   .6053045    -3.82   0.000    -3.495952   -1.123202
       rgdppc_bw |  -.0507916    .048661    -1.04   0.297    -.1461655    .0445822
        rgdppc_w |   -.002401   .0042235    -0.57   0.570    -.0106789     .005877
      hasnuke_bw |  -.0165806   .0293743    -0.56   0.572    -.0741532    .0409921
       hasnuke_w |   -.055676   .0259528    -2.15   0.032    -.1065425   -.0048095
        tdriv_bw |  -.0685397   .0367588    -1.86   0.062    -.1405856    .0035063
         tdriv_w |   .1493277   .0733282     2.04   0.042      .005607    .2930483
         ally_bw |  -.0671151   .0364264    -1.84   0.065    -.1385095    .0042793
          ally_w |  -.0673428   .1299592    -0.52   0.604    -.3220582    .1873727
 midslast5dum_bw |   .0406744    .043001     0.95   0.344     -.043606    .1249548
  midslast5dum_w |   .0718291   .0451522     1.59   0.112    -.0166675    .1603257
      polity2_bw |  -.1594939   .1922709    -0.83   0.407    -.5363379    .2173502
       polity2_w |  -1.325503   .4530005    -2.93   0.003    -2.213367   -.4376379
coder_frc_any_bw |  -.1227594   .1362848    -0.90   0.368    -.3898728     .144354
 coder_frc_any_w |  -.0701774   .0651962    -1.08   0.282    -.1979597    .0576049
           _cons |   .1488085    .043167     3.45   0.001     .0642028    .2334143
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  .37179194
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Including in the model the Polity score at the time of reassessment
. xtreg retro_frc retro_frc_lag_bw retro_frc_lag_w first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_b
> w rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnuke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw mids
> last5dum_w polity2_bw polity2_w polity2_ryear_bw polity2_ryear_w, i(ccode) re vce(cl
> uster ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        532
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        135

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.4954                                         min =          1
     between = 0.9674                                         avg =        3.9
     overall = 0.8978                                         max =         13

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                    (Std. Err. adjusted for 135 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
       retro_frc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
retro_frc_lag_bw |   .9464788   .0147153    64.32   0.000     .9176374    .9753202
 retro_frc_lag_w |   .6380808   .1488966     4.29   0.000     .3462488    .9299129
   first_pers_bw |  -.1790881   .2416887    -0.74   0.459    -.6527892     .294613
    first_pers_w |  -1.972671   .4753036    -4.15   0.000    -2.904249   -1.041093
       rgdppc_bw |  -.0438561   .0421333    -1.04   0.298    -.1264359    .0387237
        rgdppc_w |  -.0042092   .0031555    -1.33   0.182    -.0103939    .0019754
      hasnuke_bw |  -.0233309   .0268725    -0.87   0.385        -.076    .0293383
       hasnuke_w |  -.0497786    .023006    -2.16   0.030    -.0948696   -.0046876
        tdriv_bw |  -.0660057   .0384191    -1.72   0.086    -.1413057    .0092942
         tdriv_w |   .1613109   .0734091     2.20   0.028     .0174317    .3051901
         ally_bw |   -.049647   .0370305    -1.34   0.180    -.1222254    .0229315
          ally_w |  -.0611814   .1174158    -0.52   0.602    -.2913122    .1689494
 midslast5dum_bw |   .0286847   .0440186     0.65   0.515    -.0575901    .1149595
  midslast5dum_w |   .0647499   .0436238     1.48   0.138    -.0207513     .150251
      polity2_bw |   .0963474   .3708008     0.26   0.795    -.6304088    .8231037
       polity2_w |  -1.184395   .5186736    -2.28   0.022    -2.200977   -.1678138
polity2_ryear_bw |  -.2700515     .35336    -0.76   0.445    -.9626243    .4225213
 polity2_ryear_w |   .0880734   .6261592     0.14   0.888    -1.139176    1.315323
           _cons |   .1460208   .0440591     3.31   0.001     .0596665    .2323752
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  .36232304
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ****
. * Model 4, Coder-Assessed Uncertainty
. *
. use "/Users/jkaplow/Box Sync/Classes/Research/Uncertainty/Determinants/coderdat.dta"
> , clear

. xtset ccode year
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1967 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Substantive effects (Population Means)
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=(.00009862069 .3380187)) atmeans post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0000986
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

2._at        : first_per~bw    =    .3380187
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0024031   .0007739     3.11   0.002     .0008862      .00392
          2  |   .8118981   .3588339     2.26   0.024     .1085965      1.5152
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |    .809495   .3592206     2.25   0.024     .1054356    1.513554
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(polity2_w=(-.140625 .1346429)) atmeans post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =    -.140625
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

2._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =    .1346429
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0008677    .000458     1.89   0.058      -.00003    .0017653
          2  |   .0131684   .0057776     2.28   0.023     .0018445    .0244923
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0123007   .0059745     2.06   0.040      .000591    .0240105
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(ally_w=(-.9375 .9655172)) atmeans post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =      -.9375
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

2._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    .9655172
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .000443   .0002205     2.01   0.045     .0000108    .0008752
          2  |   .0286698   .0123146     2.33   0.020     .0045336    .0528061
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0282268   .0123956     2.28   0.023     .0039318    .0525218
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(midslast5dum_w=(-.96875 .9375)) atmeans post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =     -.96875
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

2._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -8.74e-20 (mean)
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =       .9375
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0017527    .000784     2.24   0.025     .0002161    .0032892
          2  |   .0068028   .0023177     2.94   0.003     .0022602    .0113454
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0050501   .0025159     2.01   0.045     .0001191    .0099812
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(hasnuke_w=(-.4516129 .875)) atmeans post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =   -.4516129
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

2._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0170382 (mean)
               first_pers_w    =    1.49e-19 (mean)
               rgdppc_bw       =    .0922635 (mean)
               rgdppc_w        =   -2.36e-19 (mean)
               hasnuke_bw      =    .0514838 (mean)
               hasnuke_w       =        .875
               tdriv_bw        =    .4285072 (mean)
               tdriv_w         =   -5.83e-19 (mean)
               ally_bw         =    .6308453 (mean)
               ally_w          =    6.99e-19 (mean)
               midslast5~bw    =    .6054406 (mean)
               midslast5~_w    =   -3.74e-20 (mean)
               polity2_bw      =    .0012635 (mean)
               polity2_w       =   -2.33e-19 (mean)
               coder_f~s_bw    =    18.63062 (mean)
               coder_fr~s_w    =   -2.36e-17 (mean)
               coder_f~2_bw    =    506.7552 (mean)
               coder_fr~2_w    =   -8.39e-16 (mean)
               coder_f~3_bw    =    16868.89 (mean)
               coder_fr~3_w    =    1.08e-14 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0011067   .0005148     2.15   0.032     .0000977    .0021157
          2  |   .0316533   .0260761     1.21   0.225    -.0194549    .0827615
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0305466   .0263875     1.16   0.247    -.0211719    .0822651
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Substantive effects (High Probability Means)
. * Between-country effects
. *first_pers
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=(.0000986 .1060) first_pers_w=-0.00326 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rg
> dppc_w=-0.00669 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.00718 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 
> ally_bw=0.5599 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw
> =-0.0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.79
> 42 coder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_yea
> rs3_bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =    .0000986
               first_pers_w    =     -.00326
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =     -.00669
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =      .00718
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =        .106
               first_pers_w    =     -.00326
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =     -.00669
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =      .00718
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .117877   .0172943     6.82   0.000     .0839808    .1517731
          2  |   .5829561    .164639     3.54   0.000     .2602696    .9056426
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .4650792   .1782162     2.61   0.009     .1157818    .8143766
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * rgdppc
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=(0.0044 0.3874) rgdp
> pc_w=-0.0067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally
> _bw=0.5599 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.
> 0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 c
> oder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_
> bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0044
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .3874
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1813699   .0145843    12.44   0.000     .1527852    .2099546
          2  |   .1269395   .0239545     5.30   0.000     .0799896    .1738894
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |  -.0544305   .0283726    -1.92   0.055    -.1100397    .0011788
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *hasnuke
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=(0 0.4682) hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=0
> .5599 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.0282 
> polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 coder_
> frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_bw=66
> 13.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =           0
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .4682
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2051062   .0215253     9.53   0.000     .1629173     .247295
          2  |   .0142082   .0148294     0.96   0.338    -.0148568    .0432732
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   -.190898   .0334285    -5.71   0.000    -.2564167   -.1253792
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *polity2
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=0.559
> 9 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=(-.1 .1) pol
> ity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 coder_frc
> _any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_bw=6613.
> 246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =         -.1
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =          .1
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1836811   .0227406     8.08   0.000     .1391103    .2282519
          2  |   .1479955   .0356821     4.15   0.000     .0780599    .2179311
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |  -.0356856   .0526408    -0.68   0.498    -.1388596    .0674884
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *tdriv
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=(0 1) tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=0.5599
>  ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.0282 polit
> y2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 coder_frc_a
> ny_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_bw=6613.24
> 6 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =           0
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =           1
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1692195    .018704     9.05   0.000     .1325604    .2058786
          2  |    .171422   .0238603     7.18   0.000     .1246567    .2181872
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0022025   .0342664     0.06   0.949    -.0649583    .0693634
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *ally
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=(0 1)
>  ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.0282 polit
> y2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 coder_frc_a
> ny_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_bw=6613.24
> 6 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =           0
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =           1
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1538666   .0217607     7.07   0.000     .1112165    .1965167
          2  |    .183902   .0194582     9.45   0.000     .1457646    .2220393
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0300354   .0328306     0.91   0.360    -.0343113    .0943821
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *midslast5dum
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=0.559
> 9 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=(0 1) midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.0282 polit
> y2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 coder_frc_a
> ny_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_bw=6613.24
> 6 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =           0
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =           1
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1336184   .0268318     4.98   0.000     .0810291    .1862077
          2  |   .1982187   .0270443     7.33   0.000     .1452127    .2512246
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0646002   .0480473     1.34   0.179    -.0295708    .1587713
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Within-country effects
. * first_pers
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=(-0.0317 0.0317) rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdp
> pc_w=-0.0067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally
> _bw=0.5599 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.
> 0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 c
> oder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_
> bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0317
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =       .0317
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1964033   .0190038    10.33   0.000     .1591565      .23365
          2  |   .1417405   .0211597     6.70   0.000     .1002683    .1832127
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |  -.0546628   .0318521    -1.72   0.086    -.1170918    .0077662
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * rgdppc
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=(-0.
> 3415 0.3415) hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally
> _bw=0.5599 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.
> 0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 c
> oder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_
> bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.3415
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =       .3415
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1961257   .0381444     5.14   0.000     .1213641    .2708873
          2  |   .1461277   .0318541     4.59   0.000     .0836948    .2085606
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |  -.0499979   .0654446    -0.76   0.445     -.178267    .0782711
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * hasnuke
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=(-0.1474 0.1474) tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 all
> y_bw=0.5599 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0
> .0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 
> coder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3
> _bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =      -.1474
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .1474
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1214325    .017349     7.00   0.000      .087429    .1554359
          2  |   .2267361   .0274141     8.27   0.000     .1730055    .2804668
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .1053037   .0376246     2.80   0.005     .0315608    .1790465
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *polity2
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=0.559
> 9 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.0282 poli
> ty2_w=(-0.0854 0.0854) coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 
> coder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3
> _bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =      -.0854
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0854
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0676281   .0196666     3.44   0.001     .0290822     .106174
          2  |   .2832405   .0449869     6.30   0.000     .1950678    .3714132
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .2156124    .061326     3.52   0.000     .0954157     .335809
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *tdriv
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=(-0.4850 0.4850) ally
> _bw=0.5599 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0.
> 0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 c
> oder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3_
> bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =       -.485
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =        .485
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1496547   .0361108     4.14   0.000     .0788788    .2204306
          2  |   .1948206   .0433957     4.49   0.000     .1097666    .2798746
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .0451659   .0755772     0.60   0.550    -.1029627    .1932945
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * ally
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=0.559
> 9 ally_w=(-0.4968 0.4968) midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=0.0529 polity2_bw=-0
> .0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 
> coder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3
> _bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =      -.4968
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .4968
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .0529
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0544844   .0137025     3.98   0.000     .0276281    .0813408
          2  |   .3403784   .0383172     8.88   0.000     .2652781    .4154786
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .2858939   .0482496     5.93   0.000     .1913264    .3804614
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *midslast5dum
. xtlogit coder_frc_any first_pers_bw first_pers_w rgdppc_bw rgdppc_w hasnuke_bw hasnu
> ke_w tdriv_bw tdriv_w ally_bw ally_w midslast5dum_bw midslast5dum_w polity2_bw polit
> y2_w coder_frc_any_years_bw coder_frc_any_years_w coder_frc_any_years2_bw coder_frc_
> any_years2_w coder_frc_any_years3_bw coder_frc_any_years3_w, i(ccode) re vce(cluster
>  ccode)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.08522  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.73022  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.95183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -453.01837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.10639  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -451.0896
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -452.64828  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.33777  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.12518  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09431  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.09031  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08974  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08963  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -451.08962  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      4,448
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =        167

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       26.6
                                                              max =         32

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(20)     =     562.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -451.08962              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 167 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
      coder_frc_any |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      first_pers_bw |    22.1679   7.275058     3.05   0.002     7.909046    36.42675
       first_pers_w |  -6.182671   3.703709    -1.67   0.095    -13.44181    1.076466
          rgdppc_bw |  -1.099741   .6240681    -1.76   0.078    -2.322893    .1234096
           rgdppc_w |  -.5191995   .6798169    -0.76   0.445    -1.851616    .8132171
         hasnuke_bw |  -6.161782   2.429652    -2.54   0.011    -10.92381   -1.399753
          hasnuke_w |   2.551225   .8965981     2.85   0.004     .7939254    4.308525
           tdriv_bw |   .0155864   .2423127     0.06   0.949    -.4593377    .4905105
            tdriv_w |   .3281709   .5495055     0.60   0.550    -.7488401    1.405182
            ally_bw |   .2144596    .236975     0.90   0.365    -.2500027     .678922
             ally_w |   2.206328    .408278     5.40   0.000     1.406118    3.006538
    midslast5dum_bw |   .4718722   .3575064     1.32   0.187    -.2288274    1.172572
     midslast5dum_w |   .7141065   .3092206     2.31   0.021     .1080452    1.320168
         polity2_bw |   -1.29403    1.95982    -0.66   0.509    -5.135206    2.547146
          polity2_w |   9.925436   2.960208     3.35   0.001     4.123535    15.72734
coder_frc_any_~s_bw |  -2.123695   .3058805    -6.94   0.000     -2.72321    -1.52418
coder_frc_any_y~s_w |  -.5890107   .0525778   -11.20   0.000    -.6920612   -.4859602
coder_frc_any_~2_bw |   .1210789   .0188031     6.44   0.000     .0842254    .1579323
coder_frc_any_y~2_w |   .0279446    .003481     8.03   0.000      .021122    .0347672
coder_frc_any_~3_bw |  -.0018845   .0002886    -6.53   0.000    -.0024501   -.0013189
coder_frc_any_y~3_w |  -.0003307   .0000547    -6.04   0.000     -.000438   -.0002234
              _cons |   3.960117   .8831926     4.48   0.000     2.229091    5.691143
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /lnsig2u |  -13.41625   120815.2                     -236806.8      236780
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |    .001221   73.75488                             0           .
                rho |   4.53e-07   .0547446                             0           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(first_pers_bw=0.0194 first_pers_w=-0.0033 rgdppc_bw=0.0748 rgdppc_w=-0.0
> 067 hasnuke_bw=0.0373 hasnuke_w=0.0072 tdriv_bw=0.4269 tdriv_w=-0.0194 ally_bw=0.559
> 9 ally_w=0.0785 midslast5dum_bw=0.6036 midslast5dum_w=(-0.7728 0.7728) polity2_bw=-0
> .0282 polity2_w=0.0193 coder_frc_any_years_bw=12.6566 coder_frc_any_years_w=-0.7942 
> coder_frc_any_years2_bw=260.5808 coder_frc_any_years2_w=89.1238 coder_frc_any_years3
> _bw=6613.246 coder_frc_any_years3_w=5191.128) post

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      4,448
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(coder_frc_any=1), predict(pr)

1._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =      -.7728
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

2._at        : first_per~bw    =       .0194
               first_pers_w    =      -.0033
               rgdppc_bw       =       .0748
               rgdppc_w        =      -.0067
               hasnuke_bw      =       .0373
               hasnuke_w       =       .0072
               tdriv_bw        =       .4269
               tdriv_w         =      -.0194
               ally_bw         =       .5599
               ally_w          =       .0785
               midslast5~bw    =       .6036
               midslast5~_w    =       .7728
               polity2_bw      =      -.0282
               polity2_w       =       .0193
               coder_f~s_bw    =     12.6566
               coder_fr~s_w    =      -.7942
               coder_f~2_bw    =    260.5808
               coder_fr~2_w    =     89.1238
               coder_f~3_bw    =    6613.246
               coder_fr~3_w    =    5191.128

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1020957   .0236431     4.32   0.000      .055756    .1484354
          2  |   .2553213   .0480918     5.31   0.000     .1610631    .3495795
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. lincom _b[2._at] - _b[1bn._at]

 ( 1)  - 1bn._at + 2._at = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   .1532256   .0678832     2.26   0.024      .020177    .2862742
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
end of do-file

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/jkaplow/Box Sync/Classes/Research/Uncertainty/Determinants/Submit/
> ISQ/Final/DetUnc_Replication.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  24 Nov 2020, 15:42:39
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
